As gold prices continue to hit new highs, are you also struggling with the age-old question: “Can you still buy gold?” Market sentiment is running high. Buy now, and you risk getting trapped at the top. Stay out, and you fear missing out on the powerful rally. This sense of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) is a challenge every investor may face. This article brings together a range of Wall Street perspectives, provides an in-depth analysis of the risks of buying gold at current levels, and offers a clear investment decision-making framework to help you determine what role gold should play in your portfolio at this point in time based on your own circumstances.
There have always been both bullish and bearish views on the future of gold prices. Understanding both sides of the argument is the first step toward making a rational decision. After all, acting impulsively based only on bullish news is often the beginning of investment losses.
Wall Street’s Bullish and Bearish Views on Gold’s Outlook
Major investment banks generally remain optimistic about gold prices in 2026. Their bullish outlook is primarily based on the following factors:
In terms of target prices, Goldman Sachs has set its year-end 2026 target near US$4,900 per ounce, while UBS has offered an even more aggressive outlook, suggesting that gold could potentially challenge the US$6,200 level under certain scenarios. These forecasts reflect institutional confidence in the bullish factors outlined above.
However, there are also many rational voices in the market warning investors about potential risks. While they may remain optimistic about the long-term outlook, they believe gold prices could face short-term pressure:
The conservative view is not entirely bearish. Rather, it serves as a reminder that investors should exercise greater caution when chasing gold at record highs and fully evaluate potential downside risks.
Combining the viewpoints above, the risks of investing in gold today can be summarized into three core factors. Before pressing the buy button, ask yourself whether you truly understand and are prepared for these risks.
Three Key Risks Investors Should Watch When Investing in Gold at Current Levels
The old market saying, “The biggest bearish factor is a market that has risen too much”, applies to gold as well. When everyone from institutional investors to everyday consumers is talking about gold, it can be a sign that the market is overheating. From a technical analysis perspective, gold prices have moved significantly above their long-term moving averages, with deviation levels reaching elevated territory. This creates the possibility of corrections of 10% or more, potentially causing short-term losses for investors who buy at higher levels.
Gold prices are highly sensitive to interest rates and the direction of the US dollar. The market generally expects a rate-cutting cycle to begin in the second half of 2026, and this expectation has already been largely priced into current gold valuations. However, if future inflation data or employment reports fail to meet expectations, the Federal Reserve’s policy direction could change. Delayed rate cuts or smaller-than-expected cuts could trigger both a stronger US dollar and lower gold prices, creating a double blow for gold investors.
One of the key drivers behind gold’s recent rally has been ongoing global conflicts and geopolitical tensions. Gold’s “war premium” or “safe-haven premium” has pushed prices above levels justified purely by supply and demand fundamentals. This means that if unexpected peace agreements are reached or major geopolitical tensions ease significantly, safe-haven capital could quickly exit the gold market and move into higher-risk assets, causing gold prices to decline sharply.
The question “Can you still buy gold?” has never had a one-size-fits-all answer. The real question is: What role should gold play within your overall investment portfolio? By using the framework below to identify your investor profile, you can determine the gold investment strategy that best suits your needs.
Choose the Most Suitable Gold Investment Strategy Based on Your Investor Profile
Before investing, honestly answer the following questions:
Based on your answers, you can classify yourself into one of the following three investor types:
Table: Characteristics of Different Types of Investors
| Investor Type | Investment Horizon | Primary Objective | Risk Tolerance |
| Long-Term Hedger | More Than 5 Years | Wealth Preservation, Inflation Protection, Risk Diversification | High (Views Price Declines as Buying Opportunities) |
| Medium-Term Swing Trader | Several Months to 1-2 Years | Capture Trends, Generate Swing Trading Profits | Moderate (Sets Stop-Loss and Take-Profit Levels) |
| Short-Term Speculator | Several Days to Several Weeks | Maximize Short-Term Price Gains | Low (Strictly Adheres to Trading Discipline) |
If you view gold as a core component of your asset allocation and use it to hedge against the risk of fiat currency depreciation, then the “current price” should not be your primary concern. History has shown that holding gold over the long term is an effective way to combat inflation.
Best Strategies:
For medium-term traders seeking to capture the main upward trend, timing becomes relatively more important. Your goal is not to buy at the absolute bottom, but to identify favorable risk-reward opportunities after an uptrend has been confirmed.
Best Strategies:
If your objective is simply to capture a short-term rebound or trade a breakout over a few days, discipline is everything. In a highly volatile market, even a moment of hesitation can lead to significant losses.
Best Strategies:
A: This depends entirely on your investment strategy. For long-term hedgers, a decline can actually be beneficial because it allows you to continue dollar-cost averaging or phased buying at lower prices, reducing your overall cost basis. For medium-term and short-term traders, a stop-loss level should be determined before entering the trade. If the price reaches that level, the stop-loss should be executed without hesitation to prevent larger losses.
A: Several key indicators are worth monitoring: 1. US Dollar Index (DXY): Gold prices typically have an inverse relationship with the US dollar. A weaker dollar is generally supportive of gold. 2. US 10-Year Treasury Yield: Gold prices tend to move inversely to Treasury yields. Lower yields are generally favorable for gold. 3. VIX Volatility Index: When market fear rises, the VIX often surges, which can drive safe-haven capital into gold. 4. Gold-Silver Ratio: Comparing the price relationship between gold and silver can help assess their relative valuation and serve as a supplementary reference.
A: Absolutely. The barriers to investing in gold are now very low. Small investors can begin with a gold savings account or a gold ETF. For example, investing NT$1,000 or NT$3,000 per month through a dollar-cost averaging plan can gradually build a meaningful gold position over time and add a stable safe-haven component to an investment portfolio.
A: Gold has been recognized as a store of value for thousands of years, and its safe-haven status has been tested throughout history. Its price volatility is also relatively lower. Bitcoin is often referred to as “digital gold” and has demonstrated safe-haven characteristics during certain periods of market stress, but its volatility is significantly higher and its risks far exceed those of gold. For most investors seeking stability, gold remains the more reliable core safe-haven asset, while Bitcoin may be viewed as a higher-risk satellite allocation.
In summary, there is no absolute right or wrong answer to the question, “Can you still buy gold?” At current price levels, risks and opportunities coexist. The key is to return to the essence of investing: understanding yourself. Using the analytical framework provided in this article, honestly assess your investment objectives, time horizon, and risk tolerance. Determine which type of investor you are and adopt the strategy that best aligns with your profile. If you are a long-term hedger, gradually building a position may be a reasonable choice. If you are a medium-term or short-term trader, patiently waiting for a more favorable risk-reward setup may be the wiser approach. Only investment decisions grounded in deep self-awareness can help you navigate the highly volatile gold market with greater confidence and long-term success.
